Election 2024

[cozy]

Looking like 2016 all over again, to me. Coming in hot here. What I see is a contradiction, people on both sides say that democracy is on the line, or that that this election could end the republic. I simply disagree with that in principle. I think both candidates are competent leaders, and that the choose represents deeper explanations about power and authority in society.

I think there is a large population of well educated, competent people who think that everyone else makes decisions based on how educated and competent that decision makes them look.

Those people watch the recent debate (September 10th) liking Harris, they were going to vote for Harris, and they think that Harris won the debate and that winning the debate has brought her closer to securing victory. Then, if you ask those people what she said, and you don't give them access to the internet to check, they won't remember a single talking point (I am not saying you, the reader, I'm sure you know all the talking points).

Instead, all they will remember is her laughing at Trump saying that immigrants in Springfield are eating dogs and cats. And people will turn that Trump quote into songs, memes. And all anyone will remember from the debate are the ridiculous things that Trump said, that, while factually dubious, have a hyperbolic thread to reality. There are indeed new immigrants in Springfield, and that represents an influx of ideas, and that causes tension in society. And then to the surprise of the well-educated liberal establishment, Trump will have won the electoral college come November. Just like with Hillary in 2016. She is laughing while a less-perfect conversation between non-intellectuals about a real problem for societies (immigration) is going on. People want a seat at the table.

So here's the kicker, I think if he wins in November, he earned it. He'll do an excellent job as president. And, I think he'll leave office, peacefully this time, in 4 years. And further, when people make a decisions, they're choosing an explanation. And I think the explanation that people are choosing with Trump is difficult for Harris supporters to understand because they (not you!) tend to think they're better than less intelligent people. They tend to be pompous, self-righteous, easily outraged and triggered and their scorecard for life is their IQ score.

That IQ score, ends up being a justification for force, which can be codified through law and selectively enforced in various ways. In all socialist countries where terrible atrocities have occurred, it was not only legal, but mandated!

“The essential notion of a capitalist society... is voluntary cooperation, voluntary exchange. The essential notion of a socialist society is force.”

— Milton Friedman

[Skull]

I don't think either side is pushing policy much, which doesn't auger that well. But then again, whatever they say pre-election doesn't really matter post-election lol. Of course, who will do a good job is the point of the choice, in essence. Harris's rallies sound like Trump's now with the pantomime oo's and ar's she elicits. The changing nature of political performance, it seems. My biggest gripe with Trump is the divisive stance he takes, the us and them dog whistle he employs. Just don't see it as constructive. Whether he will advance the country economically, I can't predict. There are many divisions in many countries, and right now they seem to be exacerbated in a lot of places. Like you say, many people in the US feel disenfranchised by those in Washington, and when a new broom looks capable of cleaning up a little, it's appealing. For my part, I'm not sure if Trump's approach is the best way forward. I fear not. But I have no crystal ball

[Skull]

As a post script, I'm equally unsure that Harris and her crew will manage anything better. But no government/party gets it right across the board. I think, myself, that right now a bit more understanding would go a long way. At some point these two warring factions have got to start trying to meet somewhere in the middle, or whoever wins, there's going to be a large disaffected other, and the partisan politics will only hinder any real progress.

[cozy]

I don't think either side is pushing policy much

I agree to a certain extent, I have seen some policy proposals from both sides, some which I agree with some which I don't.

• Trump's tariffs are a terrible idea. I agree with Harris on international cooperation when it comes to business.
• Elon's D.O.G.E. idea of Department of Government Efficiency Commission, which Trump supports, is excellent. Removing failing policies is not taken seriously. It's the same reason Milei is succeeding in Argentina despite critics right now, and something those in government are scared to do because it could cost them their jobs. But, yes, agreeing with you Telf, it's hard to say what that actually looks like once Trump were in office. Though, he did defund a bunch of stuff last time, so? And all we have to go on is what they say, and the more important ability to remove them from office in 4 years. In Harris defense she today suggested an end to credentialism for federal jobs. But, what I’d rather have has nothing to do with credentials. It’d be less people, who are capable and passionate, doing more. But the only way to do that is to fire people in government jobs, but this policy could have the exact opposite effect.
• Trump proposes eliminating taxes on overtime vs Harris proposes no or less taxes on tips . Both sound stupid to me. A little tax can go a long way if there is error correction for how they are spent (see previous proposal), then you don't need to do this tax micromanagement to appease specific castes of voters.
• Here's a more detailed view of Harris's tax proposals. Here's a detailed view of Trumps. Here's an easy to see comparison. Trump probably won't change capital gains taxes which Harris will try to raise. He'll try to lower business taxes, in general, Harris will in general try to raise them. I, perhaps obviously, favor Trump's plan here.
• Trump vs Harris on immigration. Despite it being seen as pretty taboo, I agree with Trumps position. I now PERSONALLY know someone from Russia who fled and is now living in Serbia, has money, and wants to start a business in America but was rejected multiple times. Meanwhile, there are people who are protected by the government for breaking those same rules. What's the point of the rules if they aren't enforced?

So there's just a few practical points to talk about. But, I actually think there's pretty robust information about potential policies from both candidates, but people would rather talk about why those should be ignored in favor of the existential crisis of the week.